Bitcoin se comporta como un activo híbrido en medio del conflicto en Oriente Medio: Conversaciones del mercado

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1054 ET - Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like a hybrid asset amid the Iran war, Trade Nation's David Morrison says in a note after the cryptocurrency hit an 11-week high. Bitcoin is drawing inflows during periods of easing tensions but also acting as a hedge during geopolitical uncertainty, he says. President Trump on Tuesday announced an extension to the cease-fire with Iran. However, the WSJ reports Wednesday that three ships came under attack in the Strait of Hormuz. Still, bitcoin remains elevated, rising more than 4% to a high of $79,153, LSEG data show. "Technically, $80,000 is the next significant resistance level, and the daily MACD [moving average convergence divergence] suggests moderate upside momentum," Morrison says. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0948 ET - At Kevin Warsh's confirmation hearing, he discussed a preference for trimmed-mean and median inflation over core PCE measures. An analysis from BofA says even if food and energy shocks are trimmed out they could still raise the trimmed mean by preventing other shocks from being trimmed. To avoid the optics of cherry-picking, the note says Warsh would need to "stick with his preferred metrics even when they are outpacing the core." Warsh also argued yesterday for looking through one-off, supply-driven increases. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

0945 ET - While Kevin Warsh favors substantial regime changes at the Fed and to its communication strategy--any changes he would want to implement would be tempered by the need to forge a consensus among Fed officials, a note from Oxford Economics says. "The Fed chair can't make such changes unilaterally," Oxford says. "We expect the need for Warsh to build consensus would limit the extent of changes in policy or how the Fed communicates." Potential changes to the Fed's communication strategy could include reducing the number of Federal Open Market Committee meetings per year and not committing to press briefings after each FOMC meeting. Warsh also objects to the use of forward guidance as a policy tool along with the publication of economic forecasts, the note adds.(jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

0932 ET - This week's London tube strikes could compound the capital's weak consumer activity, Oxford Economics' Liam Sides says in a note. London tube strikes are causing severe delays and disruptions to commuters. The consumer market in London is 4% below pre-pandemic levels, Sides says. Some of the factors that have contributed to poor consumer activity are inflation concerns, high housing costs, harsh tax policies, and remote working, he says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0929 ET - President Trump's desire for a weaker dollar and lower interest rates are playing a part in holding back the currency, Societe Generale's Kit Juckes says in a note. "Recent robust U.S. data have not had any positive impact on the dollar." Trump has repeatedly called for rate cuts regardless of the growth and inflation outlook, he says. The dollar could fall if the market becomes more optimistic there will be no further escalation in the Iran war, with the euro potentially rising to $1.20 in coming weeks, he says. The euro falls 0.1% to $1.1732. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0923 ET - The dollar turns higher after Iran attacked three ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The news comes after President Trump said the U.S. would extend its cease-fire with Iran but maintain a U.S. blockade on Iranian ports. Senior Iranian adviser Mahdi Mohammadi said on X that Trump's cease-fire extension "means nothing." The dollar could see further volatility, Monex Europe analysts say in a note. Any sustained easing in tensions would encourage renewed selling of the dollar whereas any resumption of hostilities would likely trigger another round of safe haven demand, they say. The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% to 98.472, having earlier traded lower. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0922 ET - If confirmed as Fed chair, Kevin Warsh will immediately face high expectations from the president who nominated him to deliver interest-rate cuts--perhaps challenging to justify with the Fed's targeted inflation rate running well above the 2% objective. In Senate testimony Tuesday, Warsh hinted at one way to make the case for cuts: He praised the "trimmed-mean" inflation metric. Trimmed-mean inflation takes the PCE inflation rate and strips out some of the product categories that rose or fell in price by the most in a given month. By excluding outliers, it aims to show a better picture of underlying inflation trends. Trimmed-mean inflation has been running at 2% annualized over the past 6 months, versus 3.4% for the traditional PCE price index. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)

0905 ET - Demand for Treasurys bounces back a little, pushing yields down, as President Trump extends the cease-fire with Iran amid stalled peace talks. U.S. stock futures rise, but so do crude oil futures, with Brent approaching $100 a barrel. The WSJ Dollar Index is steady. Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh's confirmation hearing goes without major surprises and markets keep betting on a prolonged hold on interest rates. The 10-year is at 4.274%, down from 4.290% yesterday. The two-year slips to 3.766% from 3.778%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0904 ET - While there is high uncertainty on the direction for geopolitics, the recent rise in bond yields as a result of the Middle East war, seems disproportionate relative to energy price moves, Goldman Sachs Asset Management's Kay Haigh and Whitney Watson say in a note. This potentially is creating opportunities to add duration or maintain overweight positions, the co-CIOs and co-heads of fixed income and liquidity solutions say. They add that the Middle East conflict's duration and intensity remain the major factors determining the path of near-term monetary policy. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0857 ET - Subtle but significant changes to the Fed's policy statement could be on the way after the conclusion of the April meeting next week, Derek Tang of Monetary Policy Analytics suggests. With many estimates of breakeven job creation close to zero, Tang thinks the Fed may choose to deemphasize payrolls by removing any reference to the rate of job gains and focusing on unemployment instead. More importantly, Tang thinks that the Fed may hint it is less certain that its next move will be another rate cut. He thinks the previous statement's reference to "additional adjustments" to the fed funds rate may change to "any adjustment" to the rate, signaling that the next rate move may not be in the same direction as December's cut. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)

0827 ET - Stablecoins could help mitigate the threat of de-dollarization, or reduced use of the dollar globally, if they become mainstream, MUFG Bank's Derek Halpenny says. Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency pegged to another asset, including traditional currencies. The dollar currently dominates the market for stablecoins as many coins are pegged to the U.S. currency. "If the dollar continues to dominate that and we see an expansion in terms of stablecoin usage, that certainly would be a counterargument to de-dollarization," he says. Stablecoin demand has more potential to rise in countries that are contending with historically high inflation and currency depreciation, he says. There is some evidence of this in emerging markets, he says. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0812 ET - The Turkish lira remains weaker against the dollar, barely reacting after Turkey's central bank left interest rates at 37%. Most market participants expected no change in rates, although some were expecting a rate rise, Commerzbank's Tatha Ghose says in a note. The central bank said energy prices remain elevated amid the Iran war and it is closely monitoring the effects of these developments on the inflation outlook. The dollar rises 0.1% to 44.9197 lira, little changed from levels before the decision. The lira remains heavily managed which can smooth volatility in the near term but doesn't resolve underlying imbalances, Ghose says. "The probability of a more abrupt currency adjustment will rise materially in the event of no monetary policy change." (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260422006647:0/