0956 ET - Control group retail sales--which feed into the Bureau of Economic Analysis's consumption estimate for GDP--rose 0.7% month-over-month in March. "That was much stronger than the unchanged reading we expected," a note from Capital Economics writes. While the headline retail sales number rose because of higher gasoline prices, the control group-which strips out gasoline, autos, building materials and food services-also increased, reflecting that underlying consumer spending held up. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

0953 ET - So-called bitcoin "whales," or wallets holding large amounts of the cryptocurrency, added 45,000 BTC to their wallets last week, says Cex.IO in a note. The firm defines whales as "holders with between 100 to 10,000 BTC," and the past week was the largest accumulation by these buyers since July 2025. Making it notable is that these big wallets all bought bitcoin at roughly the same time, says the firm. "In recent months they have mostly been accumulating separately, one group buying while the other held flat or sold," says Cex.IO. "This week they bought together, which suggests rising bullish momentum." Long-term holders have now added over 1 million BTC to their wallets in the past 3 months, says the firm. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0949 ET - Increases in the minimum wage and faster AI adoption means youth unemployment is higher in the U.K. than the eurozone, says Jack Meaning at Barclays. The youth unemployment rate hit a 10-year high of 16.1% in the final quarter of 2025, compared with 14.9% in the eurozone in February. The rise in the U.K. minimum wage has been higher for young workers relative to the rest of the population, making them less appealing to employers, Meaning says. Secondly, Britain is raising its investment in automation and AI, which is replacing entry-level roles which younger cohorts usually fill. The country has fallen behind European peers in terms of tech investment, he notes. (don.forbes@wsj.com)

0947 ET - It will be critical to watch for unintended consequences of the bloc's policing of multibillion euro deals as officials prepare to update the EU's merger guidelines, Ruchit Patel, partner at law firm Ropes & Gray, says. The commission is under pressure to revise the guidelines to make it easier for mergers to get approved if they spur innovation in the bloc and help companies compete globally. "The draft guidelines are not out yet, but may be the consequence of the national champion narrative that has persisted since the Siemens-Alstom merger and through the Draghi Report," Patel says. It will also be important to see if the national champion exception applies only to a limited population of otherwise anticompetitive deals, the lawyer adds. "The EU will not want to harm competition generally or to chill investment from outside the Union on which it depends." (edith.hancock@wsj.com)

0920 ET - Sterling could weaken on uncertainty over U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer's fate ahead of local elections on May 7, Rabobank's Jane Foley says in a note. "The political clouds in the U.K. are set to serve as a distraction for the sterling markets this spring especially if the Labour Party fares poorly in the May elections as expected," she says. Starmer has come under pressure over the appointment of former U.K. ambassador to the U.S., Peter Mandelson who has links to late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. The euro falls 0.1% to 0.8702 pounds but Rabobank expects it to reach 0.88 pounds within six months. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0854 ET - Treasury yields rise ahead of Kevin Warsh's confirmation hearing and as tensions persist in the Middle East. The Fed's potential new chair is scheduled to face senators starting at 10 a.m. ET. Markets watch to gauge his willingness to cut interest rates. Tehran sends mixed messages about a new round of peace talks. Oil futures fall slightly and the dollar strengthens. March U.S. retail sales accelerate more than expected, by 1.7%. The 10-year yield is at 4.268%, up from 4.249% yesterday. The two-year rises to 3.753% from 3.716%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0701 ET - Political uncertainty around the future of Keir Starmer as Prime Minister is likely to weigh on U.K. government bonds, known as gilts, AJ Bell's Russ Mould says in a note. Gilt yields have climbed in recent months, reflecting investors' view of the U.K. as a "riskier proposition," Mould says. The prime minister faces pressure due to a scandal over the vetting and appointment of the former U.K. ambassador to the U.S. Peter Mandelson. As political tensions rise, "investors will now be asking what policies might look like under a different prime minister and how that feeds into the economic outlook," Mould says. Ten-year gilt yields last trade at 4.837%, after rising 3 basis points earlier to 4.875%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0659 ET - Bitcoin turns higher slightly ahead of a potential second round of U.S.-Iran peace talks. The WSJ reports that Iran told regional mediators it would send a negotiating team to Pakistan on Tuesday. However, Iranian state media reported that Iran is yet to send delegation to Islamabad, adding to uncertainty over the situation. Markets are increasingly leaning toward the view that tensions will not spiral into a more disruptive scenario which is helping to stabilize risk appetite, LMAX Group's Joel Kruger says in a note. Investors have been buying cryptocurrencies on any dips, suggesting market participants are growing more confident in the near-term outlook even though macroeconomic risks persist, he says. Bitcoin climbs 0.6% to $76,735, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0657 ET - The cryptocurrency market has largely shrugged off recent Decentralized Finance (DeFi) hacks, LMAX Group strategist Joel Kruger says in a note. Hackers on Saturday drained nearly $300 million from a key piece of DeFi infrastructure. They targeted a cross-chain bridge to siphon about 116,500 of rsETH, a token issued by Kelp DOA. "The contained reaction reflects a growing distinction between protocol-specific vulnerabilities and the broader asset class, with investors viewing these incidents as isolated and avoidable rather than systemic threats," Kruger says. Bitcoin rises 0.3% to $76,570, LSEG data show. Ether falls 0.4% to $2,329. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0621 ET - U.K. government bonds face increased volatility due to renewed political tensions and uncertainty around the Middle East conflict. U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is under pressure after he admitted that he misled parliament over the appointment of former ambassador to the U.S. Peter Mandelson, who has been linked to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Mandelson took up the role despite the security vetting body preferring he be denied clearance, former lead civil service servant Olly Robbins told parliament Tuesday. Political turmoil is hurting U.K. government bonds, ING's Michiel Tukker says in a note. With bonds already under threat from inflation, "the addition of political risk does not bode well," he says. Ten-year gilt yields climbed 3 basis points to 4.875% before retreating to 4.841%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0615 ET - European currencies could suffer somewhat due to a significant rise in the price of memory chips in recent months, Commerzbank's Volkmar Baur says in a note. This could lead to another terms-of-trade shock for the eurozone and Europe, in general, in addition to the energy price shock stemming from the Iran war, he says. "Among the countries with the largest trade deficits are a few euro-area nations, including Italy, Portugal, and Germany." Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and the U.K. also show a deficit. A large portion of memory chips exported from Asia to Europe are likely already installed in many electronic devices, he says.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260421005863:0/